Donald Trump was having a rough week even before he got clobbered by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in Wisconsin’s primary on Tuesday. Prediction markets — which allow people to bet on what they think will happen — showed his chances of winning the nomination dropping over the last week. The chances of a contested Republican convention requiring two or more votes have climbed to 75 percent.
PredictWise, which estimates these probabilities based on those prediction markets, shows that the likelihood of a contested convention has grown 14 percent in just a week. The likelihood of Trump winning the nomination has dropped by 19 percent in the same amount of time.
PREDICTWISE
Prediction markets react very quickly to events since they reflect constant buying and selling activity on prediction websites. They ask bettors to place wagers on what they think will actually happen — not what they would personally like to see happen or whom they would vote for, which is what polls ask. The way to make money in these markets is to bet on the event that ends up happening, and people change the way they allocate their money based on the current political context.
Trump’s odds of winning the nomination dropped most dramatically after he lost the Iowa caucuses to Cruz in February. His numbers took a few weeks to recover, but he eventually regained that territory and at the end of the month had about an 81 percent chance of winning the nomination. His chances remained steadily in the 70s until last week. more
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